18.12.07

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions 2008

www.saxobank.com

"If you've read Saxo Bank's yearly Outlooks over the last few years, you'll know we don't hold back in our annual attempt to predict the black swan sightings in global markets for the coming year. Remember though, these predictions are made more in an attempt to provoke thought than at accuracy! Below is a shortened version for you to vote on, with the long version available HERE.


1) Ron Paul elected as President of the United States in 2008

Even though a Republican, Ron Paul - with his libertarian, anti-war platform - is about 3 standard deviations away from George Bush Jr and therefore actually stands a chance in the Presidentials. A general market slowdown, stock market turmoil should increase the odds of a Ron Paul nomination due to his honesty on the budget, current account deficits and the USD crisis.

2) S&P500 falls 25% from its 2007 high to 1182

Why 1182? That's an exact 25% drop from the mid-October high for the S&P500 index, while history shows that stock markets drop 15-30% when housing markets fail. The unwind from the housing market highs has already been severe - and has further to go. (...)"