"A Brokered convention is in the math!"

Via commment no dailypaul

"1,191 delegates are needed to win. 1,142 delegates out of 2,380 have already been pledged. McCain is still over 600 delegates short. There are 22 states left to vote. The good news is that only three are winner take all (Virginia, D.C., and Vermont). That means the worst of the winner take all is over.The key is to stop McCain from hitting the magic number of 1,191. The Paul campaign knew this a long time ago. The Huckabee people are waking up to it. The Romney people had been hoping to avoid it, as they are better connected in the business and Mormon worlds than inside the Beltway, and I can see him dropping out when he gets tired of pouring more of his fortune into the race as he is rapidly running out of states where he has personal connections (Michigan, Massachusetts) or relatively high Mormon populations (Utah, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota). In fact, the only state where he will be a lock is Idaho (in which Paul will also do quite well), and maybe Nebraska and South Dakota. He’ll probably spit the delegates pretty easily with the “big three” in Texas (where Paul will also be a factor), Ohio, possibly even North Carolina, and boy will everybody be giving a lot of attention to Pennsylvania when it rolls around. Oh, and I am forecasting that Romney drops out of the race (or at the very least does poorly in a brokered convention setting). So them who gets his delegates? Not Huckabee, and not McCain because both of them are anathema in the eyes of a Romney devotee, especially since the pair are perceived as conspiring against him. Plus to the degree that his delegates are Mormons, who are well known to be very libertarian leaning, Dr. Paul could really pull a shocker.Out of the winner take all states, McCain probably takes Vermont (17 delegates) and certainly D.C. (19 delegates). Virginia (63 delegates) is probable at this point, but not a lock. If the conservative vote coalesces around either Huckabee or Romney, things could break either way.The prospects get a little dimmer for McCain after the winner take all states. McCain can only win states that go blue in general elections for the most part. So he will probably do very well in Maryland, Rhode Island, Oregon, and Hawaii. In all likelihood he’ll win (but probably not as smashingly) New Mexico, Wisconsin, andHuckabee will certainly win Mississippi, and he has a good shot in Kentucky as well. After that the states he wins gets nebulous. This is good news for Paul, who has arguably underperformed in southern states. He’ll also do okay in Kansas, and could at least pull his proportional share in Texas, Nebraska (which is very Iowa-esque), Indiana, Ohio, and maybe North Carolina.*Ron Paul already has at least 42 delegates. We need to remain positive RIGHT AWAY so that he doesn’t lose traction in upcoming states very soon where he may pick up more (Washington, Louisiana, etc.)**IF WE CAN GET TO A BROKERED CONVENTION, ALL BETS ARE OFF!! Abraham Lincoln became the nominee after walking in with virtually no delegates, and eventually taking 39% of a four contestant vote."

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